Methodology
How we calculate your FY2027 H-1B selection probability
The Wage-Weighted System
Starting FY2027, USCIS uses a wage-weighted selection system established by the DHS Final Rule (December 2025). Instead of a random lottery where every registration has equal odds, your chances now depend on your prevailing wage level:
| Wage Level | Description | Weighted Entries |
|---|---|---|
| Level I | Entry-level | 1 |
| Level II | Qualified | 2 |
| Level III | Experienced | 3 |
| Level IV | Expert / Supervisor | 4 |
The Formula
We use the probability formula specified in the DHS Final Rule:
P(selected) — your probability of being selected in the lottery
f — the per-ticket selection fraction (selection target / total weighted entries across all registrants)
w — your number of weighted entries (1-4, based on your wage level)
This formula accounts for the fact that each weighted entry is drawn independently. A Level IV worker with 4 entries doesn't have exactly 4x the odds of Level I — the actual relationship is slightly better due to the independent draws.
How We Determine Your Wage Level
Your wage level is determined by comparing your offered salary against prevailing wage thresholds published by the Department of Labor (DOL) for your specific:
- Occupation — identified by Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) code
- Work location — the metropolitan statistical area (MSA) where you'll work
We include prevailing wage data for the top 20 H-1B occupations across the top 25 metro areas by filing volume, sourced from the DOL Online Wage Library (OWL) / OFLC prevailing wage data for FY2025-2026.
For occupation/location combinations not in our database, we use national average thresholds for your occupation.
Key Assumptions & Estimates
Our probability calculation relies on three estimated inputs that affect the final number. We want to be transparent about these:
Estimated registrations: 280,000
FY2026 had 336,153 registrations. The new $215 registration fee and wage-weighting are expected to reduce volume, but the exact number won't be known until after the March 2026 registration window closes. If actual volume is higher, everyone's odds decrease; if lower, odds increase.
Selection target: 120,000
USCIS needs to fill 85,000 H-1B slots (65,000 regular cap + 20,000 master's exemption). They over-select to account for dropouts and denials. We estimate 120,000 selections based on historical patterns.
Wage level distribution: 32% / 38% / 19% / 11%
We estimate that 32% of registrations will be at Level I, 38% at Level II, 19% at Level III, and 11% at Level IV. This is based on historical LCA filing data and DHS estimates. The actual distribution will affect odds — if more Level IV workers register than expected, Level IV odds decrease slightly.
Resulting Probabilities
Based on our current estimates, the approximate selection probabilities are:
| Wage Level | Entries | Approx. Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Level I | 1 | ~15.3% |
| Level II | 2 | ~30.6% |
| Level III | 3 | ~45.9% |
| Level IV | 4 | ~61.2% |
These are estimates based on projected volumes. Actual odds will be confirmed after USCIS completes the FY2027 lottery.
Master's Degree Consideration
If you hold a US Master's degree or higher, you are eligible for the 20,000-slot advanced degree exemption pool in addition to the regular 65,000-slot cap. This effectively gives you two chances at selection. Our calculator notes this advantage but does not separately model the two-pool dynamics, as the combined effect is difficult to estimate without knowing the exact distribution of advanced degree holders across wage levels.
Data Sources
- Selection formula — DHS Final Rule, "Improving the H-1B Registration Selection Process" (December 2025)
- Prevailing wage thresholds — DOL Foreign Labor Certification Data Center, Online Wage Library (OWL), FY2025-2026
- Registration volume estimate — Based on USCIS published data for FY2024-2026 registration periods, adjusted for fee increase impact
- Wage distribution estimate — Based on DOL Labor Condition Application (LCA) filing data and DHS regulatory impact analysis
Important Disclaimer
H1B Score provides estimates for informational purposes only. Our calculations are based on projected data and assumptions that may differ from actual FY2027 outcomes. This tool is not a guarantee of selection or non-selection. For legal advice regarding your H-1B case, consult a qualified immigration attorney.
We will update our estimates as official USCIS data becomes available (e.g., actual registration volume after the March 2026 registration period).
Questions about our methodology? Contact us at richard@h1bscore.com